Population statistics for 2003, released by the Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare on 10th June, show that yet again Japan's total fertility rate (TFR) fell to a record low, down to 1.29 from 1.32 in 2002. The figures also reveal that the total number of births fell from the previous year by 30,000 to 1.024 million, with a very low number of births to women in their 20s. At this rate, Japan's population will start to decline in only three years.

Critically, the figures indicate that the rate of TFR decline is greater than government projections of a minimum of 1.306 in 2007 used to formulate recent pension legislation. Were the current rate of decline to continue it would force an early review of the public pension system.

The TFR rate of 1.29 compares with Italy at 1.26 and Germany at 1.40 in 2002. France has had some success in reversing the trend by offering bigger allowances for child-care leave, and Sweden reversed the trend with better welfare for parents. Japan's efforts at reversing the falling TFR such as granting nursing leave and increasing the number of daycare centers have not worked.

Around Japan

Regional data show that the TFR declined in 44 out of Japan's 47 prefectures, falling below 1.0 to 0.9987 in Tokyo, the first time this has happened. Okinawa showed the highest TFR of 1.72, and interestingly, this prefecture enjoys the highest longevity in the country.

A typical Japanese family;
one father, one mother, one child

The figures for 2003 show that the total number of deaths was 1.015 million, the first time in 56 years it has topped one million, giving a natural increase of just 109,000. The leading cause of death for both men and women was cancer, with lung, stomach and liver being the leading ones for men, and colon, stomach and lung cancers for women. In addition, the number of suicides reached another all time high of over 32,000.

The number of marriages for 2003 declined another 2.3%, though divorce, which had been steadily rising for the last 12 years, showed a decline of 2%. Among these divorces, newlywed divorces declined, though divorces among those who had been married for 35 years or more increased.

White paper

A white paper released on 8th June by the Cabinet Office showed that the number of centenarians in Japan has doubled in five years from over 10,000 in 1998 to more than 20,000 as of September 2003. Furthermore, the number of men aged over 65 years has exceeded 10 million for the first time, reaching 10.26 million.

The paper also shows that were 24.31 million people over 65 as of October 2003, accounting for 19% of the population, up from 18% in the previous year. In addition, the number of people over 75 reached 10.55 million.