By Dr. Toshio Kuroda

Distinctive Feature of Japan's Demographic Transition

1. Demographic transition is not bound by culture

Demographic characteristics in modern societies are basically expressed through a phased process of vital statistics. Particularly, the three-stage population growth based on birth rates and mortality rates that occurred in western societies has become an established theory.

Japan achieved a demographic transition by a sharp decline in birth rates in the difficult post-WWII rehabilitation period. This case of transition was considered as a miracle or a model case that could not be explained by the established demographic transition theory (I.B. Taeuber, 1962 ). In a broad sense, the epoch-making fertility decline of Japan belongs to the experience of western countries, but it is not, in a strict sense, a repetition of their experience. First, economic and social changes in Japan that promoted its fertility changes were characterized by the historic, cultural, economic and technological factors of Japan. Second, the acceleration of fertility decline, its speed, and the resultant level are different from those of the west.

It can be said, however, that Japan's experience will present valuable indications about the futures of other countries with similar religious cultures and close historic and geographic relationships with Japan.

Japan's rapid economic growth and social development after World War II led to an illusory concept that its extraordinary process of demographic transition was the same in nature as the process in the west. Even though the stages of demographic transition in Japan were different from the west, it was recognized that the quality of transition itself was not different. In fact, there seem to be changes inherent in a population group. This is proven in Japan's experience in population.

2. Japan's demographic transition
leads industrialized countries

Japan's demographic transition does not follow in the wake of western countries, but rather, it leads other countries. This was made evident in the intermediate report of the National Council on Population Problems published by the Japanese government in August 1969 ). Figure 1. shows the net reproduction rates of Japan, the United Kingdom and Europe from 1950 and 1995. The net reproduction rates of Japan had been below the replacement level for 15 years, from 1955 to 1970, after which they have kept declining further. The British net reproduction rates until 1970 were by far higher than the rates of Japan. The level of Europe was lower than the British level until around 1970, yet much higher than the Japanese level. Japan has kept low fertility for a longer period than Britain or Europe. This fact of grave historic significance also supports the notion that Japan's demographic transition is different in nature from that which occurred in the western cultural sphere.

Figure 1. (Click here to enlarge this image)

Following Japan, rapid demographic transitions have occurred or are underway in a number of countries in Asia with diverse cultural and religious backgrounds. These phenomena are showing that demographic transition may occur in societies with ethnic and cultural diversity and socio-economic differences. In other words, Japan's experience in demographic transition must be applied to contribute to the peace and development of the world, in particular, to developing countries.