(1) Under-Replacement Fertility and Aging Population

The demographic transition in Japan had already begun in 1957 when fertility started to show a downtrend toward the under-replacement level, and the trend has been continuing to date. In 1967, the Advisory Council on Population Problems of the government published its intermediate report *1) in which it stated that a decade had passed since the total fertility rate of Japan had fallen below the replacement level. It pointed out that no industrialized country in the west had ever seen such low levels, and that the impact on the society and the economy brought about by eventual change in age structure would be enormous. It stressed the need for the recovery of fertility, and demanded that policies aiming for adequate economic development and well-balanced social development be strongly implemented.

If the recommendations made in this report more than 30 years ago had been implemented as population policies, it could have been possible to avoid the current abnormal fertility decline and population aging of today. Or at least, the seriousness of these problems might have been mitigated.

(2) Focus of the population-aging problem

As a result of the rapid decline in fertility, the process of population aging proceeded rapidly. There are several critical turning points when special consideration is required for the elderly population. The table shows these critical turning points.

(3) Alleviation of population burden
by revised age grouping

By revising the current age group division as follows, the dependency ratio is likely to be lowered as shown in the chart.
from ages 0-14 to 0-19
from ages 15-64 to 20-75
from 65 and over to 75 and over

A comparison of dependency ratios according to the conventional age grouping and the revised grouping reveals that the ratio of the latter will be much smaller than that of the former. The burden will be lightened by 20 to 30 percent except for the year 1950. This fact may suggest the basic direction of policies to cope with the increasing elderly population.

Dependency ratios by the conventional and revised age groups are shown in Table 2.

(4) Universality of the demographic transition of Japan

The demographic transition in Japan, in particular the process of its fertility transition, has international universality. Present Japanese culture is often said to be a grafted culture by importing Western culture onto the traditional culture in the process of its modernization since the end of the 19th century. Yet, Japanese traditional culture is still maintained, and has many common points with countries in Asia. Remarkable fertility declines in Iran and Mongolia both with specific cultures of their own, and the declining fertility trend observed commonly among countries in Latin America suggest that the demographic transition that occurred in Japan after World War II can be realized in countries with different cultural backgrounds.

It is expected, therefore, that Japan's experience in fertility transition could present effective lessons to policy making in many developing countries regardless of cultural differences. (To be continued)

Tachi, Minoru, "Knowledge of Population Issues," Nihon Keizai Shinbunsha, 1969, p. 193 annex
Source: Document presented at the 10th Welfare Policy Seminar (January 17, 2006) National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

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