1. Population Increases in Human History

In order to understand the greatest crisis that the world is faced with in the 21st century, it is necessary to consider characteristics of turning points in the history of population changes. In the first 15 centuries, increase rates in world population were too small to measure on a yearly basis, as they remained low at between 2 and 5 percent per century. Human population history then underwent a few major periods.

The first period was the beginning of the first millennium when the world population is estimated to have been between 100 million and 250 million, in the second period at the beginning of the 19th century, it reached 1 billion, and in the third period after World War II, it reached 2.5 billion in 1950. Since then, the age of population explosion has continued.

Major factors that triggered population increases are the development of agriculture and livestock farming that helped increase the food supply, and the Industrial Revolution that began in the 18th century. Accelerated industrial technologies promoted renovation and expansion of agricultural production. The third factor is the great demographic transition caused by remarkably unbalanced vital statistics termed "the population explosion."

2. Two demographic crises

The 21st century when human beings are faced with a stage of unprecedented population increase is the most critical century that will determine the possibility of sustainable survival of human beings. The world population more than doubled in only fifty years from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 6 billion in 2002, an increase of 120 million on average per year, which is equivalent to Japan's population. To be noted further, the world population is estimated to gain another 3 billion in another fifty years to reach 9 billion by the middle of the century.

The first demographic crisis is caused by this quantitative threat, which links to the qualitative threats. Needless to say, the desire for the enhancement of living standard of individuals will mean that the burden on the earth to support people will exceed its capacity.

The second demographic crisis is the imbalance in geographic distribution of population. Vital statistics with large geographical gaps on the global level will inevitably cause changes in the map of distribution of political, economic, cultural and military strength of the world. A few possible examples of unbalanced distribution are as follows.

First, the populations in the western cultural sphere will decline. The total number of populations of Europe, North America and Oceania was 730 million in 1950 and increased close to 1,100 million in 2005. However, the total increase in the sphere is estimated to be 47 million by 2050, or an annual increase rate as extremely low as 4.3 percent per annum. In the latter half of the 21st century, the total population of the western cultural sphere will stagnate at around 1.1 billion.

The ratio of the western cultural sphere in the world population began to fall from 30 percent in 1950 to 16.9 percent in 2005, and it is estimated to continue to fall to 12.5 percent in 2050. It is unavoidable that the presence and influence of the western cultural sphere in the political, economic and social life of the world will rapidly decline.

Second, countries in the non-western cultural sphere, currently termed developing countries, will achieve remarkable increase rates. They are represented by Africa, China and India. In particular, the population increase in the poorest region of the world, Africa, is enormous. The total population of Africa in 1950 was 224 million (8.9% of the total world population) and was quadrupled in 50 years to 960 million in 2005. It is estimated to continue to increase to reach 2 billion in 2050 (21.3%). With its massive population increase, it is easy to predict that Africa, to which the majority of the world's poorest countries belong, will exert extremely great influence on the world political and economic systems.

Third, the massive populations and great influence of China and India are currently drawing world attention. The population of China has increased from 500 million in 1950 to 1,300 million in 2005, but its ratio in the total world population at 22 percent in 1950 turned to fall in 2000, and it is estimated to occupy 15 percent in 2050. Meanwhile, the population of India has undergone a rapid increase in the latter half of the 20th century, and it reached 1,100 million in 2005 from 360 million in 1950. By 2050, it is estimated to reach 1.6 billion, larger than that of China.

3. Threat of Demographic Bankruptcy

A basic characteristic of the 21st century is a multiplied crisis caused by a massive population increase and unbalanced population distribution. Is it possible to avoid the emergence of "the Clash of Civilizations"? 1)
(to be continued)

1) Huntington, S.P., The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, NY Simons & Schuster , 1996